The system dynamics simulation of digital trade development and influencing factors

• 1、School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816

Abstract：The new trade system represented by digital trade has given birth to new formats such as cross-border e-commerce and online exhibitions. Taking digital trade as the research object, this paper analyzes and constructs a system dynamics model of digital trade development, and simulates the development trend and influencing factors of digital trade in China (2013-2030). By adjusting the parameters of technology level, service level and macro policy factors, three scenarios (unchanged, favorable and deteriorating trade situation) are set to explore the development trend and influencing factors of digital trade. The simulation results show that: (1) In general, China\'s digital trade transaction volume, including digital ordering trade transaction volume and digital delivery trade transaction volume, showed a state of first increasing and then flattening, and the growth rate was fast and then slow; (2) When the trade situation remains unchanged, the pressure on cross-border logistics will increase year by year, and then stabilize; (3) When the trade situation is favorable, there is a positive correlation between cross-border logistics pressure and digital service attractiveness coefficient and policy relaxation coefficient, and when the policy relaxation coefficient breaks the threshold, the cross-border logistics pressure will increase in a straight line; (4) When the trade situation deteriorates, the pressure threshold of cross-border logistics increases with the strengthening of supervision.

Keywords： digital trade influencing factors system dynamics simulation prediction