Research on the diffusion and intervention strategies of network public opinion in emergencies based on cellular automata

• 1、Management College，Wuhan University of Science and Technology，WuHan,430070

Abstract： [Purpose/Significance] To study the diffusion pattern of online public opinion in emergencies and how to choose the best intervention timing .[Method/Process] From the perspectives of individual behavior and social relationships, a network public opinion diffusion model of emergencies based on cellular automata was constructed.Taking the Weibo "Mouse Head Duck Neck" incident as an example, the Gephi network analysis tool was used to visually analyze the phenomenon of network public opinion diffusion. Based on the life cycle theory and combined with the popularity of public opinion, the network public opinion of emergencies was divided into stages. And based on actual case data, set model parameters and conduct experiments using the Netlogo simulation platform to study how to choose the optimal intervention stage for network public opinion in emergencies, and propose corresponding intervention strategies for different stages of public opinion diffusion characteristics.[Result/Conclusion] There is a significant phenomenon of community aggregation in the diffusion process of network public opinion in emergencies, and the diffusion network exhibits sparse characteristics; Under the same intervention intensity, choosing to intervene at different stages will show different intervention effects. As the intervention intensity increases, the optimal intervention timing for network public opinion emergencies is the incubation period, the duration period, and the outbreak period, respectively; Finally, corresponding intervention strategies were proposed based on the characteristics of online public opinion at each stage.

Keywords： Information dissemination Emergencies Onlinepublic opinion Cellular automata Simulation experiments Intervene