The demand forecast of General Aviation Professionals in the Northeast of China

• 1、Civil Aviation School, Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110136
• 2、Aeronautics and Astronautics School, Shenyang Aerospace University , Shenyang 110136
• 3、 Liaoning General Aviation Academy, Shenyang 110136
• 4、Electronic Information Engineering School, Shenyang Aerospace University , Shenyang 110136

Abstract：In view of the current rapid development of general aviation in the Northeast of China and the lack of accuracy in the prediction of general aviation professionals in the Northeast of China, a forecasting model of Gray-Markov volatile general aviation professionals is put forward, which is used to forecast the general aviation professionals in the Northeast of China. It used to forecast and inspect the quantity of general aviation pilots, maintenances and dispatches, and which also explain the process in detail. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy and the convergence speed of the model, the traditional Gray-Markov model is improved correspondingly: the data of the volatile general aviation professionals are pre-processed, the predicted value is calculated using the Markov transition probability, and the data prediction is performed dimension recursion. Through the improvement, the Gray-Markov forecasting model can be transformed into a predictor of volatility data, which can be effectively applied to the prediction of the quantity of general aviation professionals. The results show that the improved Gray-Markov forecasting model has better prediction accuracy and the result is more accurate. The forecast results show that general aviation in the Northeast of China has developed rapidly and has great potential for growth.

Keywords： traffic engineering General Aviation Professionals improved Gray-Markov forecasting model the northeast of China prediction