文本挖掘下投资者情绪与股票收益实证研究
首发时间:2021-06-16
摘要:为了能够准确的捕捉网络信息时代反映投资者情绪的指标,本文采用python网络爬虫技术爬取东方财富股吧中的帖子,得到代表投资者情绪的情感指标,结合利用主成分分析法构建的关于封闭式基金折价率、IPO个数、新增开户数以及消费者信心指数的综合投资者情绪指标得到复合投资者情绪指数,比较两者对于股票收益的影响,并进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)包含文本挖掘变量的复合投资者情绪指标对股市收益的影响更为显著,对股市具有更强的解释力和预测力。(2)滞后2期中证100指数收益率与复合投资者情绪指数正相关,股市收益越高,未来投资者情绪也越积极。
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An empirical study on investor sentiment and stock returns based on Text Mining
Abstract: In order to accurately capture the indicators reflecting investor sentiment in the Internet information age, this paper uses the python web crawler technology to crawl the posts in the Oriental Fortune stock bar to get the emotional indicators representing investor sentiment. Combined with the information about the discount rate of closed-end funds, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number of IPOs, the number The composite investor sentiment index is obtained from the composite investor sentiment index of the number of new accounts and consumer confidence index. The results show that: (1) the composite investor sentiment index including text mining variables has a more significant impact on the stock market returns, and has a stronger explanatory and predictive power on the stock market( 2) The higher the stock market returns, the more positive the investor sentiment in the future.
Keywords: Finance text mining Emotion analysis Investor sentiment stock market
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文本挖掘下投资者情绪与股票收益实证研究
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