新冠疫情冲击下中国金融市场的风险溢出效应研究
首发时间:2021-05-12
摘要:2020年以来,新冠疫情肆虐全球,引起全球各国金融市场的剧烈波动,中国金融市场首当其冲,防范化解疫情冲击下我国的金融风险成为当务之急。因此,研究疫情冲击下中国金融市场的风险溢出效应具有重要意义。本文采用较为前沿的网络拓扑分析法构建风险溢出指数,从理论与实证相结合的角度出发,探究新冠疫情冲击下中国金融市场的风险溢出路径、方向与力度。研究结果显示:第一,常态下中国金融市场整体较为稳定,股票和房地产市场是中国金融市场风险传导中的关键市场。第二,疫情爆发后中国金融市场总体风险溢出大幅提升,各金融市场间的风险溢出和溢入显著增加。第三,国内疫情逐渐缓解后市场总体风险溢出缓慢下降,其中货币市场和黄金市场等恢复较为迅速;而股票、农产品和能化市场恢复较为缓慢,基本金属市场则表现出一定的脆弱性。最后,本文根据所得结论提出风险防范措施和政策建议,有助于维持中国金融市场的安全稳定。
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Research on the Risk Spillover Effect of China\'s Financial Market under the COVID-19 Shock
Abstract:Since 2020, the COVID-19 has been wreaking havoc over the world, causingviolent fluctuations in the financial markets of countries around the world. China\'s financial market is the first to bear the brunt, and it has become a toppriority to prevent and resolve China\'s financial risks under the the COVID-19 shock.Therefore, it is of great significance to research the risk spillover effect of China\'s financial market in the influence of epidemic. The paperconstructed the risk spillover index with advanced network topologic analysis method to explore the path, direction and strength of risk spillover in China\'s financial market under the impact of the COVID-19 from the perspective of combining theory and empirical analysis. The results show that: First, China\'s financial market is generally stable under normal conditions, in which the stock and real estate markets are the key markets in in the risk transmission of China\'s financial market.Second, after the outbreak of the COVID-19, the overall risk spillover in China\'s financial markets increased significantly. At the same time, the risk spillover and risk influx in various markets have sharply increased.Third, after the gradual alleviation of the domestic epidemic, the overall risk spillover of the marketgradually decreased, in which the recovery of currency market and gold market was relatively rapid.However, the recovery of the stock market, agricultural products market and energy market was relatively slow.In addtion, the basic metal market showed a certain degree of vulnerability.Finally, according to the conclusions, the paper puts forward risk prevention measures and policy recommendations that will be conducive to maintaining the safety and stability of China\'s financial market.
Keywords: COVID-19 Financial Market Risk Spillover Effect Network Topology Analysis
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新冠疫情冲击下中国金融市场的风险溢出效应研究
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