China's employment change and driving factors under Global Value Chains

• 1、School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha,410006

Abstract：People are the foundation of a nation. Employment is not only the greatest livelihood, but also the most basic support for economic development. Based on the WIOD database and the global input-output model, this paper calculates and compares employment changes and driving factors of China under the perspective of country, industry and skill heterogeneity. The results showed that during the study period, China's total employment increased. The expansion of final demand was the biggest driving factor for China's employment growth, which had a most impact on the public service industry and labor-intensive service industry, especially from 2005 to 2009. Technological progress significantly inhibits employment growth in China. Whether in the whole study period or in stages, the inhibiting effect of labor input coefficient on employment is greater than that of total factor productivity on employment, especially on labor-intensive services and public services. Outsourcing is overall beneficial to China's employment growth. Compared to intermediate input outsourcing, the employment promotion effect of final demand outsourcing is significantly greater, which focuses on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry most between 2009 and 2014. Taking skill heterogeneity into consideration, the result also shows the above effects have a consistent impact on the employment of different skills in China. At last, this paper gives the policy enlightenment and the future research direction.

Keywords： International Trade Global Value Chain Employment Change Structural Decomposition Analysis