含洋流发电系统故障概率建模及可靠性评估
首发时间:2020-04-24
摘要:洋流发电是一种利用流体动能的可再生能源发电形式。洋流场在海面以下数百米的垂直深度范围和海岸以外数公里内均有流速分布,这样的特性对于利用洋流发电具有启示作用。本文研究洋流发电的可靠性及其对电力系统可靠性的作用,建立计及发电机故障、集电系统故障、强台风天气影响和修复率的洋流发电故障率模型。考虑上述因素,基于时序Monte Carlo模拟提出计及洋流的发电系统可靠性评估方法。针对RTS-79系统加入洋流发电进行算例分析以评估可靠性指标。算例结果验证了洋流发电对提升系统可靠性的作用,并探究了洋流规划区域面积、故障率参数变化、台风气候条件对洋流场站可靠性的影响。
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Failure Probability Modeling and Reliability Evaluation of Ocean Current Integrated Generation System
Abstract:Ocean current power generation is a form of renewable energy power generation that uses fluid kinetic energy. Ocean current fields have velocity distributions in vertical depths of hundreds of meters below the sea surface and kilometers away from the coast, that characteristics have implications for the use of ocean currents for power generation. This paper studies the reliability of ocean current power generation and its effect on the reliability of power systems, and establishes a fault rate model of ocean current power generation that takes into account generator failures, collector system failures, strong typhoon weather effects, and repair rate. Considering the above factors, a method for reliability assessment of power generation systems with ocean current power integrated is proposed based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation. For the RTS-79 system with ocean current power generation, a case study is performed to evaluate the reliability indices. The results of a case study verify the role of ocean current power generation in improving system reliability, and explore the influence of the area of ocean current planning, changes in failure rate parameters, and typhoon weather conditions on the reliability of ocean current stations.
Keywords: Reliability Evaluation Ocean Current Generation Extreme Weather Collector System Repair Rate
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