气候变暖背景下临汾地区极端降水特征的分析
首发时间:2015-01-20
摘要:基于临汾地区17个气象站1977-2010年的逐日降水资料,运用R95P法计算临汾各地区极端降水的阈值,以此作为临汾地区极端降水事件的标准。运用ArcGIS分析临汾各地区的逐日和逐月的极端降水,结果表明临汾地区极端降水的阈值总体与海拔高度呈正相关的关系,极端降水事件夏季出现的次数最多,冬季出现最少,并运用Mann-Kendall检验各地区极端降水事件的突变,临汾东部地区的年极端降水日数的变化趋势在1990至1992年发生突变;临汾中部平原地区年极端降水事件的变化情况在1985年发生突变;西部地区则在1996至1999年间发生突变。7月份极端降水月次数的突变大致发生在20世纪90年代后期;8月份极端降水月的次数在1993年发生了突变; 9月份极端降水月次数变化的突变发生在1983年;结果显示临汾地区无论是日极端降水事件还是月极端降水事件在全球气候变暖的大背景下均呈现出增长的趋势。
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The analysis of the extreme precipitation features in Linfen area under the background of global warming
Abstract:Based on the data of daily precipitation of 17 weather stations from 1977 to 2010 in Linfen area, using R95P method to calculate the threshold of the Linfen extreme precipitation in different regions as the standard of extreme precipitation events of Linfen area. Using ArcGIS analysis daily and monthly extreme precipitation of different regions in Linfen, the results show that Linfen region of extreme precipitation threshold overall and altitude were positively correlated, the relationship between the number of occurrences of summer extreme precipitation events, most winter minimum, and using Mann-Kendall test different regions mutation of extreme precipitation events, the mutation change trend of annual extreme precipitation days in eastern Linfen from 1990 to 1990; the central regions Linfen plains in the change of extreme precipitation events mutations in 1985; In the western region the mutation is during 1996 and 1999. The mutation is roughly the number of extreme precipitation in July month occurred in the late 1990s; The number of extreme precipitation month in August mutated in 1993; Number of extreme precipitation month in September mutated occurred in 1983; Results show that under the background of global warming in both daily extreme precipitation events and monthly extreme precipitation events are presenting a growth trend Linfen area.
Keywords: Urban meteorology Extremely precipitation Threshold value Linfe area R95p method
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No.4628702103082914****
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气候变暖背景下临汾地区极端降水特征的分析
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