引力波事件的统计分析
首发时间:2021-12-02
摘要:利用LIGO科学团队(LIGO Scientific Collaboration, LSC)在网上公开的数据,对过去6年里发现的93次引力波事件进行了一些统计分析。在第二个观测期里,在Virgo正式投入使用、而LIGO的探测灵敏度并没有显著变化的时候,探测到引力波事件的速率突然增大了许多;在第三个观测期期开始后,尽管每个观测站的探测灵敏度都大幅提升,探测到引力波事件的速率却几乎维持不变,甚至略有下降,远没有达到预期的三倍增长。此外,在第三个观测期里,82次引力波事件的出现频率更接近于等概率分布,而不符合同时正常工作比的预期。由此可见,目前公布的引力波观测结果并不符合一种朴素的预期,即探测灵敏度越高,有效观测时间越长,观测到的引力波事件就越多。这个结果将会让更多的人关注LIGO引力波事件的探测和分析。
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A statistical test of gravitational wave events
Abstract:Here reports my statistical analysis of all the 93 gravitational wave (GW) events in the last 6 years, using the online public data from the LIGO Scientific Team (LIGO Scientific Collaboration, LSC ). During the second observation period, the detecting rate of GW events increased a lot when the Virgo was launched officially, though the LIGO detection sensitivity did not change significantly. Since the third observation period starts, the rate of each station remained almost unchanged or slightly decreased, far from reaching the expected trifold increase. Furthermore, during the third observation period, the occurrence rate of the 82 GW events is closer to the equal probability distribution, not as expected from the co-working ratio. Therefore, the currently published GW observations do not meet the simple expectation that the higher the detection sensitivity, the longer the effective observation time, the more gravitational wave events are observed. This result may draw more attention to the detection and analysis of LIGO gravitational wave events.
Keywords: Gravitational wave Gravitational wave detection Statistical test
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